We were at The Footy Almanac grand final lunch. It’s a
production, and is unlike any sporting lunch I’ve ever attended.1
It begins with the Tip the Top 8 competition, which we enter at the start of the year. Harmsy, a gifted mathematician who has mainly used these gifts to further his punting, explains how the results are calculated. Basically, it’s this:
S is your score and lowest score wins. Harmsy takes the team’s end of season predicted position minus the team’s actual position, and that number is squared to ensure a positive result. So if you picked Carlton to finish 2nd and they finish 11th, that’s a -9 place miss which is squared to 81, and you’re cooked. It’s explained much better here by Almanacker Peter Flynn.2
The glory of the count is that almost nobody can follow it.
Harmsy isn’t just good at maths. He’s a student of history, politics, theology, philosophy, and literature. He wrote the magnificent sports fan memoirs Loose Men Everywhere (footy) Confessions of a Thirteenth Man (cricket) and Memoirs of a Mug Punter (racing) as well as a history of the AFL Players Association.3 Every year I listen to him and wonder why he’s not on radio. I took this photo of him standing under the Yalta photo of Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt, because he’d found an equivalent photo of AFL umpires with matching Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt personalities. Then he interviewed Damian Bourke, the Geelong ruckman who took the first bounce in the 1989 Grand Final, and they bonded over the time they’d met at the opera. It’s not like most other footy lunches.
Harmsy’s masterstroke is his emphasis on parents of the players taking the field the next day. Every year he invites a parent from each of the competing teams, and it’s always a combination of illuminating, heart-warming and footy affirming — just to hear from mothers and fathers who have invariably given so much to their son’s career, and are now enjoying this moment.
This year it was Harris Andrews’ parents, Wayne and Wendy Andrews, and Mark Blicavs’ father Andris, who played basketball at the Montreal Olympics.
We also get two weather reports for the next day, always billed as ‘government weather’ versus ‘corporate weather’, as BOM meteorologist
is pitted against Brett Dutschke from a commercial weather information provider.
David has written beautifully about the day on this platform. The Martin Flanagan letter he told me about on the day, and mentions here, is incredible.
And so on Friday it is no surprise to find myself chatting with writer, MC, film producer and Substacker Tony Wilson. During our yakking I refer to the contents of a letter that celebrated Australian writer Martin Flanagan once wrote. He wrote it as a public reply to a public letter that I had written to him when he left The Age newspaper in 2017. My letter and Martin’s reply were both published at The Footy Almanac site. Both stand as highlights of my life in writing. I return to Martin’s letter often. And so on Friday, I am very happy to be reminded of his letter and standing with Tony Wilson, I mention it again, in the context of good people doing good things.
“And so, David Wilson, you and I must both be brave. We are being led into a world of greed and instability and galloping inequality that is being glued together with crude versions of religion and patriotism that make it inherently belligerent…” —
from Martin Flanagan’s public letter, June 2017
Jack’s video with the Lions parents coterie was viewed 31,000 times on instgram. They presented him with a Brisbane scarf and a Harris Andrews bobble head. I took the scarf to the MCG the next day (I’m an MCC member) and wondered if I’d do the Hawks rivalry anti-Geelong thing of wearing it provocatively and sending pics to Cats friends.
But I couldn’t do it. Treason is treason. You’ve got to be true to your colours. That’s the fun of being a footy fan.
Congratulations Brisbane and does anyone want me to post them Anthony Daniher’s scarf with a Joe Daniher badge? (first commenter who says they want it gets it).
Congratulations Harmsy, and thanks for creating something special in the sports world.
Visit The Footy Almanac and its legion of writers.
There’s a great summary of the day written here, by Colin Ritchie https://www.footyalmanac.com.au/almanac-lunches-the-almanac-pick-the-final-8-grand-final-eve-lunch-2025/
Peter Flynn says
Hopefully the following makes a bit of sense. I’ve tried to minimise strict formalism. Sum of squares is grounded in and across many areas of mathematics.
(1) Definition of Terms:
xp is the predicted ladder position so xp=1 corresponds to the team you predict will finish 1st
xa is the actual ladder position so xa=11 corresponds to a team that finishes 11th
(xp-xa)^2 is the difference squared and squaring ensures a positive result
sigma denotes a sum
The n=1 below sigma and the 8 above sigma denote that 8 numbers (as we will see squared differences) will be summed.
The resulting sum gives S which is your Tip the Top 8 score
(2) Interpreting the formula for S:
We calculate 8 differences between predicted ladder position and actual ladder position. We square each of these 8 differences to form 8 positive (squared) numbers and we then add these together to give a value for S.
The operation of squaring these differences means that everybody obtains a non-negative score.
(3) Sample Calculation (2011 Season)
Predicted Ladder Position (xp) Actual Ladder Position (xa) (xp-xa)^2
Geel (1) Geel (2) (1-2)^2=1
Haw (2) Haw (3) (2-3)^2=1
Coll (3) Coll (1) (3-1)^2=4
Syd (4) Syd (7) (4-7)^2=9
NM (5) NM (9) (5-9)^2=16
St-K (6) St-K (6) (0-0)^2=0
WCE (7) WCE (4) (7-4)^2=9
Frem (8) Frem (11) (8-11)^2=9
So 1+1+4+9+16+0+9+9=49 and hence S=49. That’d be a pretty competitive score.
The lowest possible S value is zero. This corresponds to correctly tipping the Top 8.
Unless I’ve made a silly error, the maximum S is 968. This is tipping Ess to finish 1st and they finish 18th, Carl to finish 2nd and they finish 17th etc.
In a perverse way, if you get the maximum score I reckon it’s as good as getting zilch.
Good tipping!
Buy Harmsy’s books here https://www.footyalmanac.com.au/almanac-shop/
